Routine Laboratory Blood Tests Predict SARS-CoV-2 Infection Using Machine Learning.
Publication Type | Academic Article |
Authors | Yang H, Hou Y, Vasovic L, Steel P, Chadburn A, Racine-Brzostek S, Velu P, Cushing M, Loda M, Kaushal R, Zhao Z, Wang F |
Journal | Clin Chem |
Volume | 66 |
Issue | 11 |
Pagination | 1396-1404 |
Date Published | 11/01/2020 |
ISSN | 1530-8561 |
Keywords | Coronavirus Infections, Hematologic Tests, Machine Learning, Pneumonia, Viral |
Abstract | BACKGROUND: Accurate diagnostic strategies to identify SARS-CoV-2 positive individuals rapidly for management of patient care and protection of health care personnel are urgently needed. The predominant diagnostic test is viral RNA detection by RT-PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs specimens, however the results are not promptly obtainable in all patient care locations. Routine laboratory testing, in contrast, is readily available with a turn-around time (TAT) usually within 1-2 hours. METHOD: We developed a machine learning model incorporating patient demographic features (age, sex, race) with 27 routine laboratory tests to predict an individual's SARS-CoV-2 infection status. Laboratory testing results obtained within 2 days before the release of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR result were used to train a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) model from 3,356 SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR tested patients (1,402 positive and 1,954 negative) evaluated at a metropolitan hospital. RESULTS: The model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.854 (95% CI: 0.829-0.878). Application of this model to an independent patient dataset from a separate hospital resulted in a comparable AUC (0.838), validating the generalization of its use. Moreover, our model predicted initial SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR positivity in 66% individuals whose RT-PCR result changed from negative to positive within 2 days. CONCLUSION: This model employing routine laboratory test results offers opportunities for early and rapid identification of high-risk SARS-CoV-2 infected patients before their RT-PCR results are available. It may play an important role in assisting the identification of SARS-CoV-2 infected patients in areas where RT-PCR testing is not accessible due to financial or supply constraints. |
DOI | 10.1093/clinchem/hvaa200 |
PubMed ID | 32821907 |
PubMed Central ID | PMC7499540 |